By Isobel Williams via SWNS
The typical family is shrinking in size dramatically with people predicted to have more than a third fewer relatives in the near future.
A new study has shown that the structure and numbers of immediate family is going to change dramatically, leaving care for the sick or elderly increasingly hard to come by.
The number of cousins, nieces, nephews and grandchildren will decline sharply and the number of great-grandparents and grandparents increase significantly.
As an example, a 65-year-old woman in 1950 would have had an average of 41 living relatives, but experts believe that a woman of the same age in 2095 will only have 25.
This impact will be even more pronounced in areas such as South America and the Caribbean where a 65-year-old in 1950 had an average of 56 living relatives and would be projected to have only 18.3 in 2095.
Overall they expect the number of relatives to drop by an average 35 percent by 2095.
Dr. Diego Alburez-Gutierrez from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany said: “We expect the overall size of families to decline permanently in all regions of the world.
“We expect the largest declines in South America and the Caribbean.”
Areas such as North America and Europe, where families are already comparatively small, are expected to have a much less dramatic drop.
Numbers in those areas are expected to go from 25 to 15.9 living relatives by 2095.
The researchers believe that these shrinking families will have increased responsibility to care for older relatives.
Dr. Alburez-Gutierrez continued: “Our findings confirm that the availability of kinship resources is declining worldwide.
“As the age gap between individuals and their relatives widens, people will have family networks that are not just smaller, but also older.
“Consider the case of grandparents and great-grandparents, who are expected to be in greater supply in the future.
“While this could theoretically help ease the burden of childcare for parents, these (great-)grandparents may actually need care themselves.”
To get their results, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team studied historical and projected data from the United Nation’s World Population Prospects.
They managed to calculate 1000 kinship histories for each country across the world.
They defined family size as the number of living great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, siblings and cousins.
They believe that the results highlight a need for investment in social support systems so that people don’t need to rely as much on their families for care.
Dr. Alburez-Gutierrez concluded: “These seismic shifts in family structure will bring about important societal challenges that policymakers in the global North and South should consider.”
